Which way the Catholic Church?
With the death of Pope Francis a thousand articles have already been written and a thousand times that number are coming in the weeks leading up to the introduction of the new pope.
After the conclave has done its work, the new pope will appear on the balcony at St. Peter’s and wave, and an avalanche of essays on the first question posed above will follow.
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And of course, we won’t know or even be able to guess the answer. I’ve had seven popes in my lifetime and only have fixed opinions on the last three: Saint John Paul II, Benedict and Francis. This process just doesn’t happen often. Like the proverbial “first reports,” first opinions and impressions of and reactions to popes are almost always wrong.
St. John Paul II was 58 when his surprise election was announced in 1978. He served until his death at 85. Pope Benedict was elected at the age of 75 and served less than eight years before his retirement. Pope Francis was 77 when elected Pope and served a dozen years.
It has thus been more than 30 years since Roman Catholics and the world have had a leader at least 75 years young. (St. John Paul turned 75 in 1995). That’s a very long time for old men to hold that office of worldwide consequence.
For thirty years the Roman Catholic Church has, to put it charitably, drifted. The arguments among Catholics are long, deep and enduring, but there is one metric about which most Catholics will agree as a metric on the health of the Church: Mass attendance.
“Attendance at Mass has been declining for many years in much of Europe, whereas the numbers of active believers have been growing significantly in Africa,” according to the Wall Street Journal on Monday. “In Latin America, the long-dominant Catholic Church has been losing ground to other faiths, especially evangelical Protestantism.”
It should not surprise that an institution led by septuagenarians for three decades is not growing in its core mission: Mass attendance.
In the avalanche of commentary to come, keep an eye on the candidates’ alleged abilities to attract young men to the priesthood and all people to Mass.
There were 407,000 priests at the end of 2023. That number began to fall in the mid-1950s, and the decline accelerated after Vatican II wrapped up in 1965, but has been relatively level since St. John Paul II brought a surge of energy with him to Rome in 1978.
The key demographic, however, is the average age of a priest, which today is 70. It’s an old church run by old men.
The lists of “papabili” are interesting and provide a snapshot of the College of Cardinals but little else. What we won’t know for a few weeks is whether the Cardinals are “self-aware” of their age problem.
The youngest cardinal is Mykola Bychok, 45, who is the highest-ranking Catholic official in Australia.
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Cardinal Giorgio Marengo who is 51, is in charge of an area including Mongolia. Also, just past the 50 mark are Cardinal Américo Manuel Alves Aguiar of Portugal, Cardinal George Koovakad of India, now serving in Rome, and Cardinal Rolandas Makrickas of Lithuania, also serving in Rome.
There are at least 10 more cardinals in their 50s. My prayer for the conclave is that the cardinals assembled realize that the Church needs energy to go along with its doctrine and mission.
Whoever emerges from the deliberations of the 185 talented and dedicated men, let it be like 1978 again, when Karol Józef Wojtyła went into a conclave an obscure prelate from Poland and emerged a pope ready and able to lead with joy and energy the world’s Catholics and millions more who pay attention to the words coming out of St. Peter’s.
The commentary will stress the divisions within the Church, but there is much more unity than there are divides. The local parishes I attend on both coasts do not reflect the debates that catch the passing glance of writers and columnists. They are well-attended and happy places, but the priests are increasingly from abroad as the United States is not meeting its mark in inspiring young men to dedicate their lives to the Church.
That single factor will not drive the conclave, but I can hope whatever does move the group assembled ends up producing a pope who cures that problem and not just in America, but around the world. The Church needs priests. That would probably require an inspiring and relatively young pope. We can pray.
Hugh Hewitt is a Fox News contributor, and host of “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” heard weekday mornings 6am to 9am ET on the Salem Radio Network, and simulcast on Salem News Channel. Hugh wakes up America on over 400 affiliates nationwide, and on all the streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel’s news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6pm ET. A son of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard College and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a Professor of Law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996 where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has frequently appeared on every major national news television network, hosted television shows for PBS and MSNBC, written for every major American paper, has authored a dozen books and moderated a score of Republican candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and his column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump over his 40 years in broadcast, and this column previews the lead story that will drive his radio/ TV show today.